A free, real-time tool for detecting cryptocurrency market regimes using quantitative statistical models — built for traders, researchers, and anyone who wants to go beyond candlestick charts.
BTCMonitors.com applies Hidden Markov Models (HMM) — a class of probabilistic state-space models widely used in quantitative finance — to live cryptocurrency price data. The result is a real-time classification of the current market into one of four distinct regimes, updated every 30 seconds.
Unlike simple moving-average crossovers or RSI signals, an HMM captures the underlying statistical structure of market behavior: the tendency for markets to persist in a regime, the probability of transitioning between regimes, and the distribution of returns and volatility within each regime.
The site covers Bitcoin and the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap, each modeled with parameters calibrated to that asset's historical volatility profile.
The model uses Baum-Welch (EM) algorithm to estimate parameters from historical price data, and the Viterbi algorithm to decode the most probable current regime from recent returns. The Forward algorithm computes real-time regime probabilities. Learn more on the Learn page.
7-day hourly price history with each candle colored by the regime active at that timestamp — making regime transitions immediately visible.
Rolling return standard deviation chart showing how volatility evolves relative to the HMM's regime boundaries.
Histogram of recent hourly returns plotted against the Gaussian emission distributions for each regime state.
Time-series of the HMM Forward algorithm output — the probability of being in each regime at each point in time.
All price data is sourced from CoinGecko's public API and is subject to their terms. Data is for informational purposes only.
The information on BTCMonitors.com is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of professional advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and speculative. Past regime patterns do not guarantee future results.
Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. BTCMonitors.com is not responsible for any financial losses incurred from using this site.
Have a question, found a bug, or want to suggest a feature? We'd love to hear from you. Visit our Contact page.